MEM575 Industrial Management: Aggregate Planning – During the COVID-19 in Malaysia

Words: 4000

 

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QUESTION 1

Selangor had started facing the third wave of COVID-19 when the number of cases recorded by Malaysia Health Ministry increased day by day. Below are the data from 18th October until 27^th October 2020.

Date	No of cases
18/10/20	3
19/10/20	4
20/10/20	6
21/10/20	9
22/10/20	38
23/10/20	37
24/10/20	96
25/10/20	22
26/10/20	25
27/10/20	155

 

1. Develop a 2-day moving average to forecast no of cases from 18/10/20 to 28/10/20 and using graph paper, plot the average and the
2. Next, forecast for a 3-day moving average and add the 3-day plot to the graph created in part (a).
3. Which is better (using the mean absolute deviation): the 2-day average or the 3-day average?
4. Compute the forecasts for each day using exponential smoothing, with an initial forecast for 18/10/20. Use α= .1, then α = .3, and finally α = .5. Using MAD, which α is the best?

 

QUESTION 2

The production manager of a company is to prepare an aggregate plan that will cover six months of production of brackets. The forecasted demand for the product in the next six months is as shown below:

 

Month	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
Forecasted demand (units)	600	600	1000	1400	1600	1200

 

Additional information:

Regular wage                           : RM10/hr

Overtime rate                          : RM15/hr (on working days only, subject to 4 hrs max per day) Labour requirement                             : 2 hrs to produce 1 unit of product

Cost of hiring                           : RM1,000 per worker

Cost of firing                            : RM1,500 per worker

Current workforce                  : 11 workers (i.e. workforce available at the beginning of July) Subcontract

cost                                            : RM40/unit

Inventory cost                         : RM10/unit/month held

Beginning inventory               : 0 unit (i.e. at the beginning of July)

Normal working time             : 8 hours/day, 25 days/month

 

 

 

All monthly demands must be fulfilled immediately (i.e. backlog or backorder is not allowed). The manager is considering 3 possible plans as follows:

 

Plan A: Maintain the current workforce (11 workers) and use inventory only to absorb changes in demand.

 

Plan B: Use minimum possible regular workforce, vary over time and subcontract as necessary. For this plan it is not allowed to have inventory.

 

Plan C: Vary the number of workers employed to exactly meet the forecasted monthly demand. (Assume the workers remaining at the end of December will not be laid-off).

 

• Propose the best possible plan to adopt.

• Is there any Plan that you would exclude from consideration in case of strong opposition from the union for laying off workers? Any other reason why you should not favor this Plan?

 

 

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